Capital Appreciation and Value Growth: Dubai vs Miami vs New York

Dubai
Dubai had an aggressive price run-up after 2021, especially in waterfront and villa communities. Some assets posted >20% year-on-year jumps during the hottest phases of the cycle. This proves Dubai can deliver rapid capital gains in 12–24 months — especially if you enter an off-plan launch very early, before the wider market bids it up.
But Dubai is cyclical. Developers can flood the market with new supply. When too many similar towers get handed over at once, resale prices and rents can flatten. You must time the cycle. You are playing a high-growth / high-volatility game.

Miami
Miami’s appreciation story is more structural and demographic. The city keeps attracting high-income migrants (finance, tech, crypto, hedge fund satellite offices), plus Latin American wealth looking for political and currency stability, plus Europeans and Middle Eastern buyers chasing year-round sun.
On top of that, true waterfront land is limited. Scarcity creates floor support under prices. For that reason, investors often model 4%–7% annual appreciation over the medium term in well-located Miami condos and waterfront single-family. This is not the explosive “20% in a year” Dubai-style spike. It’s more like a steady climb supported by lifestyle demand.

New York
New York (Manhattan especially) behaves like a blue-chip bond: historically it trends upward in nominal terms over long windows because global capital always wants Manhattan exposure. But it does not always go straight up. High-end ultra-luxury inventory has recently seen softness: certain top-tier Manhattan product has posted price declines in the range of ~8%–11% year-over-year.
The message: Manhattan does not guarantee fast appreciation, especially at the very top of the market where prices are already extreme. Instead, it aims to hold value over 10+ years in a globally respected address with strong legal protection and extremely limited buildable land.

Upside style:

Dubai = fast upside if you catch early phase

Miami = steady upside powered by migration, tax arbitrage, and lifestyle branding.

New York = slow, prestige-driven, stability-oriented value retention with occasional dips in the ultra-prime tier.